"epistemic arrogance"

"it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
"the future ain't what it used to be."
                                      Yogi Berra

My reading this summer has been Nassim Taleb's "The Black Swan."  No, this is not the story of a ballerina with an eating disorder. Taleb's focus of Black Swan is based on the phenomenon that while the evidence of observations suggest all swans are white, one day there appeared a black one. So what? Taleb has found that peeps are miserable failures at dealing with the randomness of life for a number of reasons. Primarily, peeps use data to confirm what they already believe (confirmation bias) and that when something totally unexpected happens, they create a narrative to explain why it was predictable. Such is the case with 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, etc. The three most significant technological advances in our lifetime (computer, internet, and laser) were unplanned, unpredicted, and unappreciated. Taleb posits that our existence is driven more by our instincts (behavioral tendencies) to make sense of events by looking backwards with an illusion of understanding than our choices.

 One of those "instincts" is the way we deal with episteme (Greek word for knowledge). In fact, Taleb suggests, peeps have an arrogance that correlates with knowledge. We become more arrogant as we gain knowledge, overestimating what we know and underestimating uncertainty. The more expert one becomes, the more likely they are to be whacked by what they don't know they don't know. We gain a greater confidence we are in control because we can better explain past events and better predict events in the future. The fact is, research has shown that knowledge gives peeps comfort not capability about the uncertainties of the future. Unpacking this notion takes many pages in Taleb's book and can be quite complex, but the bottom line is that reality is full of randomness and the human condition is designed to diminish the role of it in their lives because uncertainty fuels anxiety and fear and a sense of being out of control.

Now I do not know if Taleb is a Christian or not, he never brings in spiritual insights in his work. However, there are insights in his work that have spiritual implications. What Taleb has described in his books and essays is the flaws in our human condition and he associates it with a form of ARROGANCE. That is, the human is not made to effectively deal with the future and accompanying uncertainties. To support an illusion of control, peeps diminish the possibilities and  consequences of "randomness" with episteme.

The Bible has another perspective. Faith is the assurance of things NOT SEEN. Faith, not knowledge, is our quest. For the Kingdom mind, randomness is simply "God's sovereign hand." Instead of resulting in arrogance, this results in humility. Instead of fearing the future, the Kingdom mind gives us hope. Recognizing that we are under Grace, the future is not filled with Black Swan events and associated   risks, but assurance of being glorified in the Creator and Sustainer of the universe who loves us beyond imagination.

Needless to say, "The Black Swan" is considerable pause for pondering ....