What makes risk "risky"?

Life is full of uncertainty. There is only a small percentage of individuals who like to “take risks”, whereas most are more comfortable with “playing it safe.” What we fail to understand is that maintaining status quo or seeking safe havens also contain risk. It’s just not as obvious. Thus, making sense of risk is not as easy as it seems for most people.

Consider the domesticated turkey.


The turkey spends the first 1000 days of its life in great comfort, eating well in air conditioned rooms. If you asked the turkey about its prospects for life, it would say its great and always will be. The turkey is very content with status quo, believes strongly in its future, and would never “take the risk” to change it. There is no perspective of uncertainty. On the 1001^st day someone comes to take it to slaughter. Where did the risk lie? The future was outside of the turkey's control, but the turkey didn't know it. The risk was in the truth about the turkey's future, not in how strongly the turkey believed about the future based on its data.

The American Dictionary of the English Language published in 1828 by Noah Webster defines risk as “exposure to harm or loss.” The exposure has as much to do with the uncertainty of the environment around us as the actions we take themselves. GET THIS. Human nature is to place concern about risk on what we do and not to the nature of the situation. The RISK is more about the future in which we must act than what we do.

For instance, when considering a financial investment, we might say that investing in stocks expecting 8% return is “too risky” because the stock may go down, so we invest in 5 yr government bonds earning 2% or just hold cash. The so called less risky action may actually contain more risk because if 4 % inflation hits, we lose money with cash or low interest bonds. The risk lies not in our action (or inaction) as much as it does in future conditions.

This occurs in job decisions too. A person may seek to “hang on” to their current job because taking a new job with another company has too many uncertainties (risks). They find later that their company is being sold or is downsizing and they are losing the job they so desperately sought to keep. The risk was in inaction in an uncertain future, not in the person's action anticipating the future. Apply this to relationships!! Ohhhhhh!

You see, our EXPOSURE to harm or loss exists in both action and inaction because risk is sourced in the uncertainties of the future, not in the uncertainties of our action. We cannot avoid risks. We can only mitigate them or manage them. We do this by taking actions that reduce our vulnerability to future events based on their likelihood (probability) of their occurrence. We can reduce our exposure, but we cannot eliminate it. Because the world keeps changing, we must realize doing nothing and clinging to status quo may be the most “risky” thing we can do.

BTW, the difference between taking a risk and taking a chance is that chance is ignoring the possible consequences of our action or inaction. Running across a highway without considering the speed we are running and the number and speed of cars on the highway is “taking a chance”, not risk.

Finally, there is an interesting word that contradicts the notion that risk must exist because the future is uncertain, thereby exposing us to harm or loss. That word is HOPE. Noah Webster gives us two definitions of hope. The most common one we use means “a desire with at least some expectation or belief it will happen.” This is a little stronger than just a wish, but still recognizes the future is not predictable or assured. Then there is HOPE that means assurance, full confidence that something in the future will happen. This is the word used by God in His Word relative to our inheritance as His adopted child.

We live with a full assurance that He loves us and that the privileges and promises of His Kingdom are ours. It cannot be destroyed, tarnished or taken from us. This form of hope is the opposite of risk in that there is no exposure to harm or loss. A carnal mind cannot make sense of the second form of hope and is destined to live out life with fear and anxiety that just around the corner there is the possibility of harm or loss, the 1001st day in the turkey's life.

Risk management is not the actions we take today to control the outcomes of the future, but to take actions today to mitigate the consequences of the future over which we have no control.

So, what makes life risky – for the carnal mind its more the uncertainty of the future not the actions we take (or inaction) to protect ourselves from the future.  Risk is determined by the truth of the future, not the “safety” of our actions.