making sense of uncertainty

I have been focusing on how words have different meanings depending on how we as peeps view something as uncertain or not. I have been reading "The Black Swan" (no, not about ballet dancer), a book by Taleb about managing risks, or managing our lives as we know it in the midst of uncertainty.

Much of the book deals with how the science of risk management has misunderstood and mistaught statistics. I CERTAINLY would not bore my blog audience with that. What has fascinated me from the book however are the behavioral tendencies that cause peeps to deal poorly with uncertainty. How as humans do we manage our life given there is so much that is unknown to us? Taleb emphasizes that it is what we do not know that ultimately contributes significantly to our well being.

For example, when an employer hires a new employee, the candidate's resume, references, and testing provide the hiring agent much info about the candidate. Hiring selection then is based on what is known. However, during the work life of the employee, it is what we did not know that seems to contribute positively or negatively to the workplace's well being. While employers attempt to get all the info on the candidate to make a good choice, many hirings result in less than satisfactory outcomes for the employer because the things about the new employee the employer did not know.

Six to eight years ago The Cliffs was an attractive place for retiring professionals to live. Everyone I have talked to (including myself) did a reasonable analysis of cost, benefits and risks. Of course, all of this based on what we knew. However, none of us knew of a pending financial crisis and economic downturn. it has been what we did not know that has dominated the lives of Cliffs residents in the past year.

I've told Taleb's famous example of the domestic turkey. For 100 days her life is wonderful, comfort and food. On the 101st day, taken to slaughter. Nothing in the turkey's known world can predict the 101st day. Whether we accept it or not, we all live the life of the turkey. What is it that lies ahead for us? We do not know and it will affect us greatly.

Why do peeps deal so poorly with uncertainty?Some of these insights from Taleb can be helpful to all us peeps!! let me summarize a few for you:
1. we take what we know too seriously making it difficult to admit we are wrong and change our mind
2. we have a limited frame of reference by which to draw conclusions
3. we seek evidence and use facts to confirm our view. not challenge it
4. we fail to listen to the "silent evidence" because we tend to learn from repetition and ignore rare events
5. we rationalize the unpredictable after the fact
6. we are part of an 'interconnected world" we know little or nothing about

Of course our natural tendencies to deal with anything, especially uncertainty, is sourced in our carnal minds. Taleb simply describes how our flesh responds to the unknown.

Fortunately, believers in Christ can appropriate their Kingdom mind to the unknown. this gives us "spiritual tendencies" that flow from making sense of ourself and the world around through the lenses of Grace.
Grace tells us the unknown to us is known to God, who loves us and guards us, not to make our circumstances the way we think they should be, but to keep us in harmony with the Heavenlies and in relationship with Him, the source of all Joy.

From a Kingdom perspective, all risk management belongs to Jesus, the authority over all creation.
We can be free of fear of the unknown because all things work together for the good of those who trust their future to its author and nothing can separate us from the Grace that sustains us!!

Pondering on this makes resting in a chaotic world much more of a comfort ......